Every presentation at the COFI Convention described BC’s forest industry as being in a state of transition. ChatGPT perfectly summarizes the convention:

The forest industry in British Columbia is in a state of transition due to several factors that are reshaping the sector. Some of these factors include changing market dynamics, environmental concerns, regulatory shifts, and technological advancements. The following points provide an overview of the key drivers of this transition:

1. Market dynamics: Global demand for traditional forest products, such as paper and newsprint, has declined in recent years due to the increasing use of digital media. At the same time, there is growing demand for new, value-added wood products, such as engineered wood and bio-based materials. BC’s forest industry is adapting to these changes by shifting its focus towards these emerging markets.
2. Environmental concerns: Public concern over climate change and the role of forests as carbon sinks has led to increased scrutiny of the forest industry. Sustainable forest management practices are now more critical than ever, as consumers and governments worldwide are demanding that companies prioritize environmental stewardship. BC’s forest industry is working to adopt more sustainable practices to maintain its competitiveness and social license to operate.
3. Regulatory shifts: The government of BC has introduced several regulations in recent years to promote sustainable forest management and address environmental concerns. These include the Great Bear Rainforest Agreement, which protects a significant portion of BC’s coastal temperate rainforest, and revisions to the Forest and Range Practices Act, aimed at improving forest management practices. The industry must adapt to these new regulations while maintaining economic viability.
4. First Nations involvement: First Nations in BC have become more involved in forest management and decision-making processes, reflecting a broader trend of Indigenous reconciliation and self-determination in Canada. This has led to the development of new partnerships between First Nations and the forest industry, which can help support more sustainable and locally-driven forest management practices.
5. Technological advancements: New technologies, such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and advanced wood processing techniques, are transforming the forest industry. BC’s companies are investing in these technologies to improve efficiency, reduce waste, and produce innovative wood products that meet the demands of the global market.
6. Workforce challenges: The BC forest industry is facing a labor shortage due to an aging workforce and a lack of skilled workers entering the sector. To address this issue, the industry is working to attract new talent, enhance training programs, and improve working conditions.

In summary, the forest industry in British Columbia is undergoing a transition driven by a combination of market shifts, environmental and regulatory pressures, technological advancements, and workforce challenges. To remain competitive and sustainable, the industry must continue to adapt to these changes and embrace new opportunities in the evolving global market.

The untimely death from heart attack of my boss Rob Chimko has been a bitter pill for me and many others to swallow. Lumber marketing workshops or training manuals don’t offer words of guidance for comfort to family or friends in times of loss of a loved one. Nevertheless, I’m so grateful for Rob’s mentoring that afforded personal opportunities he nurtured within the dynamic and supportive Dakeryn Industries team environment.

An in-depth interview published in Business Focus Magazine at the height of the pandemic a couple years ago expands on Rob’s “résumé virtues” that have shaped Dakeryn Industries’ success. It’s been my privilege to be a part of what Rob described as a “nimble and adaptable” company approach as key to successfully weathering turbulent times. In Rob’s words: “Our business is constantly shifting and evolving in tandem with market conditions. We navigate a housing crisis in much the same way that we navigate the introduction of duties. We refocus our attention from challenges to opportunities.” The opportunities pursued, as spelled out in some detail in the magazine piece, are for reviewing on another day.

As we reflect today on the Rob we knew, his trading floor desk next to mine for many of the past 13 years sits agonizingly empty. It’s into that vacuum that thoughts of Rob’s passing search for words of relevance.

As president of Dakeryn Industries, Rob epitomized the leadership style explicated by author, world-renowned expert on performance, Steve Magness. In simplified terms, that leadership guide says: “Hire good people. Give them the tools to succeed. Provide them the security to take calculated risks. Get out of their way. Let go of over controlling. Support, don’t thwart. Cultivate intrinsic motivation. Trust them to do their job.”

In a New York Times piece, columnist David Brooks described what he referenced as the difference between our “résumé virtues” and our “eulogy virtues”. He said the résumé virtues are the ones we put on our résumé, which are the skills we bring to the marketplace. The eulogy virtues are the ones that get mentioned in the eulogy, which are deeper; defining who we are, reaffirming the nature of our relationships — are we bold, loving.

Rob’s successful leadership embedded strengths of personal character and integrity that effectively and uniquely encompassed virtues of Brooks’ self-described résumé and eulogy virtues. The ‘cool’ with which Rob successfully managed market volatility inspired confidence in experienced and junior staff alike. His résumé virtues savour accomplishments — speak to the strong relationships he enjoyed among a legion of industry friends. It reaffirms the careful planning Rob initiated along with senior partners to ensure a strong team is in place for Dakeryn’s continued success. His eulogy virtues savour inner consistency and strength – underscoring the humble, enduring spirit qualities of Rob the man — husband to Liz, father to Lauren, Kaitlyn, and Zac, friend and mentor whom we all loved and will miss deeply.

Questions we’re wondering about this year:

1. Will more lumber traders discover benefits of practicing mindfulness as a tool to improve mental well-being with ever increasing, stress-inducing market volatility?

2. Will either U.S. or Canadian men’s soccer teams record satisfying results in the World Cup in Qatar this year?

3. Will the labour pool for truckers grow in North America?

4. Will the latest record-shattering lumber market run end differently this time?

5. Will contemporary democracy be deemed viable in America by the end of 2022?

6. Will Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine?

7. Will the Old Growth logging deferral be an unresolved issue for B.C. by the end of 2022?

8. Will pandemic woes be better or worse by end of 2022 in terms of impact on ‘normalizing’ our lives?

9. Will the early lockout of Major League Baseball mean no summer ball? Should we care?

10. How will the accelerated pace of digital transformation across every organization alter collaboration between remote workers and office workers in the lumber industry in 2022?

11. Will B.C.’s largest sawmill owners’ trend of expanding their investment in forestry operations south of the border increase unabated in 2022?

12. Will the longest reigning monarch in British history – Elizabeth II – be ruling over the British Commonwealth of Nations by the end of 2022?

13. Will year-end survey ascertain that most lumber traders are in compliance with Center for Disease Control (CDC) recommendation of at least 7 hours sleep per night that is required for maintaining well-being and healthy life?

On this New Year’s Eve, you’ll recall 12 Questions asked at Harderblog almost one year ago:

1. Will Canada achieve stated goal of having every citizen who desires the shot to be inoculated by end of September, 2021?
   Yes. Evidence indicates that Canada met its goal of vaccinating everyone who was eligible and/or desirous of receiving the Covid shots by stated date of September 30, 2021. Global Affairs Canada’s report by August 12th announced plans to donate 10 million additional doses of vaccines to the Covid Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX), that brought Canada’s total donations to COVAX to over 40 million doses. This contribution was possible because of the reported success in securing a supply of vaccine doses to meet Canada’s needs and stated goals. Unfortunately, that goal, albeit accomplished, loses relevance in the light of challenges posed by subsequent variants and task of inoculating eligible individuals who remain unvaccinated and at greatest risk.
2. Will the national security risks posed by expansion of right-wing extremism in the internet ecosystem be seen as a diminished or greater threat to democracy by the end of 2021?
   From all reports, threats posed by right-wing extremists in the internet ecosystem have proliferated through 2021. The threats have become increasingly transnational, as extremists become increasingly sophisticated in their use of the Internet to recruit and radicalize. Mainstream social media platforms are now a major tool to target new audiences. Extreme right-wing groups collaborating online that search out financial aid, operational support for their collaboration across national boundaries, are posing increased risks of undermining democracies across the globe.
3. Will lumber markets be more predictable in 2021 than was the case in 2020?
   No. Increasing intensity of climate change superimposed on pandemic-impacted variables cast shadow of greater unpredictability on both supply and demand factors that shaped markets in 2021.
4. Will the U.S. be as largely divided by partisan identity at the end of 2021 as it is at the end of 2020?
   From all indications, the divide is at least as large.
5. Will North American major professional sports leagues have returned to ‘normal business’ operations by Autumn 2021?
   Not really. While fans were back in the stands for baseball’s World Series and other season startups of NFL, NHL, NBA, MLS, Covid-caused disruptions included postponement of games and news surrounding individual cases (see: Aaron Rodgers vax story). Ongoing challenge with new Covid protocols has been exacerbated with new variants – most recently, the Omicron variant.
6. Will the record destruction caused by wildfires in California in 2020 be eclipsed in 2021?
   No. According to data collected by Cal Fire, the 2021 fire season was the second worst on record in terms of most land destroyed (1,863,324 acres on all their protected lands vs. the record of over 4 million acres destroyed in 2020). Here in BC, the 2021 seasonal wildfires were challenging also, with over 2 million acres destroyed. The cost of $585 million ascribed to BC’s wildfires compares with $649 million in 2017. It’s noteworthy that the wildfire that destroyed the village of Lytton June 30th occurred during record high Canadian temperature 49.6 Celsius (121.3 Fahrenheit) three days in a row.
7. Will Justin Trudeau be Prime Minister of Canada at the end of 2021?
   Yes. Trudeau’s Liberal party won re-election in September, with results that largely mirrored the election of 2019 – again resulting in a minority government in which the NDP party holds balance of power.
8. Will President Biden find a job approval rating higher or lower than the 63% enjoyed in January?
   Lower. President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 43% according to the most recent December survey.
9. Will the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price break the all-time high of $955 reached in September, 2020?
   Yes. The Composite Price reached an all-time high of $1515 (May 25th) before crashing to $389 (August 26th). In the December 28th Random Lengths Lumber Report, the Composite Price broke through $1000 for the second time this year ($1038).
10. Will all things China be as dominant in international relations news stories by the end of 2021 as they are at the year’s outset?
    Yes. The pandemic, climate change, along with other geopolitical issues, ensured that China remained central to news dominating international relations in 2021. By year end, the challenge of constraining tense relations between the U.S. and China to “healthy competition” rather than evolving into military confrontation remained a delicate balance, with China’s warning to U.S. not to support “Taiwan Independence” following Biden’s Zoom meeting in November.
11. In the overcrowded virtual event market, will organizations – including lumber distributors – find new ways to encourage online connections?
    While engagement on social media is not a new trend, record lumber prices ignited an explosion of growth in online communities and engagement among bewildered lumber distributors, dealers, homebuilders and forest industry analysts in 2021.
12. Will the fashions that male lumber traders exhibited in Zoom meetings this year still be considered to be trendsetters by year-end?
    Year-end reports indicate that the “slob-chic” style of early pandemic Zoom era lumber trader fashions are still setting the pace. ‘Comfort’ remained top of mind on the rollercoaster that was 2021, even as traders began to return to the office.